NFL Week 10 Predictions

Last week I got back in the win column, always nice.

This week saw Miami's Dave Wannstedt be the scapegoat for the Dolphins' miserable season. Without a doubt, they are arguably the worst team in the NFL this year, this for a team that hasn't had a losing season since Ronald Reagan was president. It must be noted that in his first 4 years as coach, when he had control of personnel decisions, the team won an average of more than 10 games per season. This year, Wannstedt lost control of personnel to Spielman and the team has tanked. It was Spielman, not Wannstedt, who made the bonehead decision of pursuing Philadelphia's third string quarterback as the solution to their ongoing problems at QB. It was Spielman who failed to bring in a quality backup for Ricky Williams. Miami's problems start with a distinct lack of talent on offense, exacerbated by the loss of Williams and by injuries to key players like David Boston. Those problems, in turn, reveal a lack of depth on the team, a failing Wannstedt must take a share of since he did have control for several years. But it would be hard for any coach to get this bunch to play well, especially when sharing the division with New England. The clamor for Wannstedt's head reflects more on the proud tradition of Miami than his actual performance. It's a shame he's being made to take the blame.

Onto this week.

Bucs @ Falcons
Since Brian Griese has taken over the Buc offense, they are playing well and winning games again. He has gone 3-1 as a starter, and some are starting to look at them as dark-horse playoff contenders. I am still unimpressed with Michael Vick as a quarterback (he's a great running back, but he doesn't play that position) and their defense is not as good as it appears (ask Priest Holmes and Derrick Blaylock, or even Griese's replacement in Denver, Jake Plummer). Prediction: Bucs.

Steelers @ Browns
Pittsburgh has proven its grit the last two weeks, beating two previously undefeated teams. The games could well be previews of the AFC title game and Super Bowl. Now they have to prove they can bring it just as effectively against a weak opponent rather than cockily overlooking them and getting caught. All the focus is on rookie Big Ben and the season he is having, but this is a veteran team, with many stars left from their 2002 campaign, plus Duce Staley from the Eagles' last three NFC title game runs. They will not make the rookie mistake of overlooking anyone, especially in a heated division rivalry. Prediction: Steelers.

Texans @ Colts
The Colts find themselves in a hot race for the division title, primarily with Jacksonville, but with Houston coming up fast. Both teams feature explosive offenses (Peyton Manning has overtaken Daunte Culpepper in the race to beat Marino's single season passing records) and college-caliber defenses. Teams coming off Monday night wins have an abysmal winning record this year, so I'm going to buck the trend and pick Houston in an upset. Prediction: Texans.

Lions @ Jaguars
The Lions are on the road again, which has become quite friendly this season. The Jags will be without Byron Leftwich. Detroit's offense is still ranked low, and will face the strong Jaguar defense. I don't see the Jag offense doing much without Leftwich, and the Lions should be able to do something. It will be low-scoring, but the Lions will take another road victory. Prediction: Lions.

Chiefs @ Saints
The Saints were annihilated by San Diego last week. Kansas City looks a lot like the Chargers, though with a worse defense. Actually, they look a lot like the Saints could look if they could ever get their act together. But, as usual, they will not and the opposition will win. Prediction: Chiefs.

Ravens @ Jets
The Jets will be without Chad Pennington this week. Remember what happened last year when Pennington was out? Quincy Carter has had his moments as a starter in Dallas, but he is prone to interceptions and will face one of the better secondaries in the league. Baltimore has its own problems at QB, so this game will be decided between the two running backs, Jamal Lewis and Curtis Martin. At this point, Lewis is the better back and will face the lesser of the two defenses. Prediction: Ravens.

Seahawks @ Rams
The first time these two teams met, the Seahawks dominated for 3 1/2 quarters, then saw the Rams bring off the second biggest comeback in NFL history. The loss left the team in a funk, losing the next two games as well, dropping them from the very thin ranks of the top tier NFC teams. Seattle appears to have gotten over that funk, while the Rams have been playing inconsistent football. With a win this week, Seattle will regain control of the division and could ascend again to join Philadelphia as the only other really good team in the conference. Behind a strong running game, strong defense, and effective passing, the 'Hawks will overwhelm St. Louis. Prediction: Seahawks.

Bears @ Titans
The Bears have won some games, but they still aren't all that good. A rested Titan team should take them fairly easily. Prediction: Titans.

Bengals @ Redskins
Week in, week out, the Redskins always find a way to beat themselves when the opposition cannot. Against the Packers, the go-ahead and possibly winning touchdown was called back on a questionable penalty, followed immediately by an interception from the woefully inaccurate Mark Brunell. I said it last week, and I'll say it again: the Bengals look to be getting in some sort of groove. Prediction: Bengals.

Giants @ Cardinals
Arizona plays well at home. The Giants have become turnover machines, and the Cardinals have a knack for forcing turnovers (as anyone who has them as a fantasy defense, like me). Prediction: Cardinals.

Vikings @ Packers
During the Monday night game against the Colts, ABC showed an interesting stat. Under Mike Tice, when the Vikings are ahead at halftime, they have an overwhelming winning percentage. But when they are behind at the half, they have an overwhelming losing record. This suggests a team that is not able to deal effectively with adversity, a team so used to winning that struggles devastate them. This would explain last year's team, which started so strong, but when the losing started was unable to stop the bleeding and finished out of the playoffs. With Randy Moss out due to injury, for the first time in his career, the Viking offense has lost its edge. The losing has begun again, and if history is any guide, that spells trouble in Viking-land. The Packers, on the other hand, have responded well to adversity again this year, rallying from a 1-4 start to hit the mid-point of the season 4-4, one game out of first place. Admittedly, those wins have come against lesser teams, who have not been able to force the Packers out of their set offense. Green Bay has lost when opposing offenses have gotten out to big leads, forcing them to rely exclusively on the passing game. They have won when they haven't fallen behind and have been allowed to execute their Ahman Green-led running attack. With a weakened offense and non-existent defense, the Vikings will not be able to follow the path Indianapolis did. Prediction: Packers.

Panthers @ 49ers
In the battle for the basement, the 49ers have the advantage of having more starters on the field than Carolina's team of backups, and play at home. Prediction: 49ers.

Bills @ Patriots
New England got right back on the horse last week and blew away the Rams. They did it with an injury depleted secondary that featured wide receiver Troy Brown. While the Patriot secondary has not healed too much in one week, the Bill passing game is not much of a threat. I am still concerned about the Patriot rush defense. Buffalo has stepped it up a bit with McGahee replacing Henry at running back. But New England is still one of the best teams, if not the best, in the league, and Buffalo isn't. Prediction: Patriots.

Eagles @ Cowboys
The Eagles are really the only really good team in the NFC (and they have problems, but that's why the AFC is better and either Pittsburgh or New England will win the Super Bowl). Dallas is falling apart. The pressure is on for Parcells to give Drew Henson a try at QB, but the problems in Dallas are all on an underachieving defense that was best in the league last year and for some reason has fallen on hard times this year. The way to beat Philly is the way Pittsburgh (the only team to do it) did it: strong running game to exploit that weak run defense, and a good secondary to take Owens out of the picture. (A good pass rush helps too.) Dallas has none of these. Prediction: Eagles.

Last Week: 9-5
Season: 72-58